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Sunday, April 12, 2020

If it saves just one life...

How many times have you heard someone say "If it saves just one life, then it's worth it"?

That's one of my pet peeves because it's blatantly wrong. We will not do whatever it takes to "save just one life".

Consider auto accidents. Just under 40,000 people are killed each year in traffic accidents in the US. We could eliminate nearly all of those with just two regulations:
  • Speed Limit: A strictly enforced national speed limit of 10 miles per hour on all roads of all types.
  • Safety Equipment: Require all passengers and drivers to use fire suits, helmets, and NASCAR style five-point safety harnesses.
Of course, there's no way that we're going to do that. The cost is too high. It would save tens of thousands of lives but we won't do it.

Maybe that's not enough lives or maybe the rules would be too hard to enforce. So here's another idea.

About 5,000 pedestrians and 800~900 cyclists are killed by motorized vehicles each year. Instead of those two suggested rules, we should simply outlaw motorized vehicles completely. Then we'd save about 45,000 lives combined from traffic accidents, vehicle-pedestrian accidents, and vehicle-cyclist accidents.

By banning all motorized vehicles, we'd also stop over 500 boating deaths, several hundred ATV deaths per year, and all plane crash deaths.

Now we're talking WAY more than "just one life" so surely it's worth it. Isn't it? No, it's not. If someone actually attempted to outlaw motorized vehicles, they wouldn't get very far.

Maybe people who say "it's worth it" mean "it's worth it, as long as you don't mess with our transportation system".

OK. Let's explore that.

Between 2012 and 2016, there were over 176,000 home structure files started by cooking activities. This led to over 5000 fire injuries and 530 deaths. That's over 100 deaths per year caused by cooking at home. Therefore, we should outlaw cooking at home. It would save over 100 lives per year. That's more than just one life so it's worth it.

We also need to outlaw sports. Obviously boxing is dangerous with over 500 deaths in the ring since 1884. Football has to go too. There's been one only death on the field in the NFL but there are several every year in youth, high school, and college football.    Several.    Every single year.

We can't switch over to soccer either. Or hockey. Or Basketball. Fatality rates in some of these sports aren't high but they're not zero and "if it saves just one life, then it's worth it". All sports would need to be banned.

Anyone of us could easily come up with more examples, but I think you get my point. There are limits to what we will do, pay, give up, etc. to save lives. There always has been and always will be.

So what do people mean when they say "if it saves just one life, then it's worth it"? In some cases, they're probably not thinking rationally. It's a statement made in an emotionally stressful moment and, if they thought about it, they wouldn't say it.

However, I think it's more often an attempt to manipulate. When they say "if it saves just one life..." what they're actually saying is "this rule/policy/expenditure is really important to me and I don't want anyone to argue with me or do any sort of cost/benefit analysis". 

It's really just an attempt to cut off discussion and ignore the data. When that happens, I call them on it because - data matters.

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